IEA warns EU methane law could limit bloc's oil supply options
- EU methane rules could narrow oil supply options
- More than half of EU states back delaying the law
- No EU country yet has a body in place to verify compliance
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the EU's methane emissions rules could limit the oil supplies available to the bloc, as member states prepare to discuss calls from Germany and others to delay the measures.
Methane is a potent greenhouse gas and the EU has introduced legislation to curb emissions. From January 2027, imported oil and gas must comply with emissions monitoring requirements equivalent to those in the EU or to a U.N.-backed standard known as OGMP 2.0.
The IEA said around 22.5 MMbpd of global oil production is expected to comply with OGMP 2.0 in 2027 — but that not all of this would be available to the EU. The EU imported 9.3 MMbpd of oil in 2025.
"We estimate that the pool of traded crudes that EU refiners can import legally will narrow by more than 50%," the IEA said in a monthly oil report.
That is because some grades of crude cannot easily be substituted, while certain producers may prefer to sell into more profitable markets outside Europe, the IEA said. Heavy crude used in asphalt production, for example, is supplied largely by countries such as Mexico and Venezuela, which do not meet the EU methane standard.
Calls for a delay. "Limiting the pool of crude for EU refiners could result in higher input costs or a shift to the use of sub-optimal crudes," the agency said, adding that this could ultimately weaken the EU's energy security.
The IEA urged the EU to clarify how the rules will be implemented, warning that uncertainty could further restrict access to oil supplies.
EU ambassadors are due to discuss the methane law in Brussels on Wednesday after more than half of the bloc's member states, including Germany, Italy and the Czech Republic, called for a delay over concerns it could disrupt energy supplies.
Environmental campaigners have urged the EU not to abandon its clampdown on methane, which is the second-biggest cause of climate change after CO2 emissions, noting that the total global production of oil and gas meeting the EU and U.N. standards exceeds the amount the bloc needs to import.
Governments have also been slow to prepare for the rules. No EU country has established a verification body to enforce the legislation, meaning companies currently have no way to certify compliance.
The European Commission has drafted plans to waive penalties for companies that breach the methane rules, but has so far resisted calls to postpone their introduction.
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