BP says emerging economies will lead energy growth to 2030
World energy growth over the next 20 years is expected to be dominated by emerging economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil while improvements in energy efficiency measures are set to accelerate, according to BP’s latest projection of energy trends, the BP Energy Outlook 2030.
BP's 'base case' - or most likely projection - points to primary energy use growing by nearly 40% over the next twenty years, with 93% of the growth coming from non-OECD countries. Non-OECD countries are seen to rapidly increase their share of overall energy demand from just over half currently to two-thirds.
Over the same period, energy intensity, a key measure of energy use per unit of economic output, is set to improve globally led by rapid efficiency gains in the same non-OECD economies, under these projections.
According to the BP Energy Outlook, diversification of energy sources increases and non-fossil fuels (nuclear, hydro and renewables) are together expected to be the biggest source of growth for the first time. From 2010-2030, the contribution to energy growth of renewables (solar, wind, geothermal and biofuels) is projeted to increase from 5% to 18%.
Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing fossil fuel, and coal and oil are likely to lose market share as all fossil fuels experience lower growth rates. Fossil fuels’ contribution to primary energy growth is projected to fall from 83% to 64%. OECD oil demand peaked in 2005 and in 2030 is projected to be roughly back at its level in 1990. Biofuels will account for 9% of global transport fuels.
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