Asia's jet fuel, diesel cash premiums hit multi-year highs on Mideast concerns
Asia's jet fuel and diesel cash differentials soared to multi-year highs on Monday, as the markets priced in the risks of supply disruption from a widening conflict in the Middle East, multiple regional trade sources said.
Jet fuel cash differentials JET-SIN-DIF ended the trading session at a premium of $4 a barrel, LSEG pricing data showed, more than $2 higher than the previous close and at levels last seen in September 2022.
Diesel cash differentials GO10-SIN-DIF were at premiums of around $4.25 a barrel, levels last hit in November 2022, the data showed.
Refining margins for both 10ppm-sulphur gasoil and jet fuel edged up to around $30 a barrel or more, at their highest in nearly four months.
The biggest market driver was concern about the disruption of middle distillates supplies loading from the Strait of Hormuz, with possible knock-on effects for demand for Asia-loading cargoes, the trade sources said.
Europe may seek Asian supplies. In particular, they said Europe may need to seek replacement supplies from Asia if the conflict and disruption are prolonged.
Benchmark European diesel refining margins rose about 26% on Monday, to their widest since November 20.
Apart from the general risk of disruption, concern was heightened by the closure of Saudi Aramco's 2222.SE 550,000 barrel-per-day Ras Tanura refinery on the kingdom's Gulf coast after a drone strike. QatarEnergy also said it will stop production of liquefied natural gas and related products.
Nearly 600,000 metric tons of diesel flows per month from exporters in the Strait of Hormuz went to Europe last year, Kpler shiptracking data showed. Jet fuel flows on this route averaged 1.1 million tons per month.
Around 40% of jet fuel exported from refiners via the Strait of Hormuz were bound for Europe last year, the data added.
"For jet fuel, if flows from Strait of Hormuz are reduced, Europe will have to pull more from the SG straits and NE Asia," Vortexa's head of APAC analysis Ivan Mathews said, adding that all these factors will tighten Asia's jet fuel supply. The situation could be exacerbated by the refinery maintenance season in Asia starting from the second quarter, he said.
He also said prices in Europe would have to "rise more", without giving specific levels, compared with Asia for the east-west arbitrage margins to be favorable and overcome freight costs for sellers to send jet fuel barrels from Asia to Europe.
The Velos Emerald, Eagle Lyon and new-built Oasis were chartered in the last three weeks to ship about 300,000 tons of jet fuel from northeast Asia to northwest Europe for March arrival, two shipping sources said on condition of anonymity.
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