Global liquid fuels demand seen rising 0.9%/yr - EIA
By DAVID BIRD
NEW YORK -- Global liquid-fuels demand is expected to rise by 0.9% between 2010 and 2035, to 109.5 million bpd, with the world becoming more reliant on OPEC oil, according to a US government forecast released Monday.
The Energy Information Administration said China, the world's second-biggest oil consumer after the US, is expected to see its liquid fuels demand - mostly petroleum - rise by 2.8% annually between 2010 and 2035.
Demand will hit 18.5 million bpd in 2035, more than double the 2010 rate of 9.19 million bpd.
According to EIA data, China's oil demand doubled between 1980 and 1996 and again between 1996 and 2006.
The world will be more reliant on oil supplies from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries by 2035, the EIA projects.
OPEC's share of world demand will rise to 41.9% in 2035 from 39.7% in 2010.
Output of crude oil, condensates and natural-gas liquids from OPEC's Middle East members will rise by 1.5% in the period, offsetting declines in South America and North Africa.
OPEC total oil output is expected to rise by 10 million bpd between 2010 and 2035, to 44.19 million bpd.
As reported, US oil demand will grow by a modest 0.2%/year through 2035, capped by increased energy efficiency and rising prices, and won't top the 2005 peak, according to government projections released Monday.
The EIA forecast is based on an extended economic recovery, with real US gross domestic product growth of 2.5% a year between 2010 and 2035, moderate population growth, improved technologies brought on by stricter federal and state regulations and higher energy prices.
Oil demand is expected to top out at 19.99 million bpd in 2035, up 770,000 bpd from 2010, but well below the 2005 peak of 20.8 million bpd.
Biofuels use, much of it domestically produced, will decrease oil demand by the equivalents of 1.2 million bpd of crude oil between 2010 and 2035, the EIA said.
Rising US oil production will allow the world's biggest oil consumer to cut net crude oil imports in the forecast period.
US oil output, with production from shale oil fields outpacing declines in Alaska, will peak at 6.7 million bpd in 2020, a rise of 1.2 million bpd from 2010, and the most since 1993.
Helped by ongoing development in the US Gulf, crude oil output in 2035 will be near 6 million bpd, or annual growth rate of 0.4% since 2010.
Rising domestic supply will trim US net crude-oil imports by 0.8% a year through 2035, when they will average 7.5 million bpd.
Net crude-oil and petroleum-products imports are projected to drop by 1.2% a year through 2035, reducing the share of petroleum demand met by imports to 36.2% from nearly 50% in 2010.
Dow Jones Newswires
Comments