European oil refinery maintenance to rise in March
European oil refinery maintenance is running higher than expected in February and will increase further in March, according to assessments from two companies, tightening supplies and propping up fuel profit margins.
Crude distillation unit (CDU) outages will average nearly 612,000 barrels per day in February, up from a previous forecast of about 300,000 bpd back in October.
Another firm, FGE NexantECA, also sees around 700,000 bpd of capacity offline during February, with maintenance picking up in March and April.
Going into March, both companies expect the maintenance impact to increase to between 1 million bpd and 1.16 million bpd.
Oil companies typically schedule maintenance in the spring ahead of peak summer demand. A buildup in the level of shutdowns could tighten supply and help rebalance Europe's fuel markets, offering support to low gasoline and diesel profit margins.
European diesel refining margins have been recovering since the end of January, after a nearly 41% drop following unplanned maintenance in November that cut capacity.
Gasoline margins remain weak, with physical Eurobob gasoline barges trading at a $6.19 premium to Brent crude at the end of last week, the lowest since March 2025.
The strength in middle distillate cracks was largely due to uncertainty around Indian diesel exports to Europe due to the European Union's ban on fuel derived from Russian crude and tensions around Iran potentially choking off oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, said analyst Stephen Brennock of FGE.
Additionally, U.S. cold weather taking refinery capacity offline could also prop up prices, said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah.
Three refineries have moved up maintenance from earlier expectations - HelleniQ Energy's 137,000 bpd Aspropyrgos refinery in Greece, Gunvor's 110,000 bpd Ingolstadt refinery in Germany and Rompetrol Rafinare's 105,000 bpd Petromidia plant in Romania.
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