Dow announces 2029 startup of Phase 1 of its $7.5-B Path2Zero ethylene project
- This announcement was first detailed in the Calgary Herald: https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/varcoe-dow-moving-ahead-10b-petrochemical-project-alberta-2029-startup
Dow Inc.’s proposed Path2Zero petrochemical complex in Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta—one of the province’s largest active industrial projects—has regained momentum after a period of uncertainty. The $7.5-billion project, designed to be a net-zero emissions facility, is now expected to begin its first phase of operations in late 2029, about two years later than originally planned.
The Michigan-based chemical producer had delayed construction plans in April 2025 as it reassessed market conditions and sought to cut corporate capital spending by US$1 billion. At the time, the project’s future appeared uncertain amid a prolonged downturn in global commodity chemical markets. Dow has now confirmed that the project is moving forward, providing renewed confidence in Alberta’s industrial investment landscape.
According to the revised schedule, the second phase of the Path2Zero project is expected to be operational by the end of 2030. While this represents a one-year delay from earlier projections, it is sooner than some analysts had anticipated following last year’s pause.
Industry observers view Dow’s recommitment as a significant signal of confidence in the project’s long-term viability. Bill Rawlusyk of S&P Global Commodity Insights described the decision as “huge,” noting that it demonstrates Dow’s belief in the strategic importance of the facility despite current market headwinds. Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein echoed this view, emphasizing that Dow sees the project as a strong long-term investment even as the chemical sector remains in a cyclical downturn.
The announcement coincided with broader corporate changes at Dow, including a major restructuring and the elimination of about 4,500 jobs globally. Despite these cost-cutting measures, the company’s decision to advance Path2Zero underscores its commitment to large-scale, lower-emissions petrochemical production and to Alberta as a key hub for future growth.
Dow’s decision to delay its Path2Zero petrochemical project by two years is aimed at better aligning capital spending with current market conditions, CEO Jim Fitterling told analysts during an earnings call. Following the delay, total project capital spending is expected to be about US$7.5 billion (C$10.1 billion). Fitterling said the revised schedule represents the “most value-creating option,” while reaffirming Dow’s commitment to the project’s long-term strategic rationale and its role in higher-value applications such as pressure pipe, wiring and cable, and food packaging.
The Alberta project is positioned as a cornerstone investment for the province’s petrochemical sector, designed to add value to local resources while advancing decarbonization goals. Dow says the facility will be the world’s first net-zero integrated ethylene cracker and derivatives complex. The project received final approval in November 2023, with plans to triple ethylene and polyethylene capacity at Dow’s existing Fort Saskatchewan site.
During peak construction, the development is expected to create up to 5,500 jobs and support 400 to 500 permanent positions once fully operational. Alberta’s Jobs and Economy Minister Joseph Schow welcomed the progress, citing anticipated economic benefits for the province.
The project comes amid challenging conditions for the global petrochemical industry, which has been dealing with a supply glut that has pressured margins, particularly at older and higher-cost facilities. Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein noted that Dow’s recent cost-cutting measures reflect weak global demand and margin compression seen in 2025 results. However, capacity shutdowns in Asia and Europe are expected to help rebalance global commodity chemical markets over time.
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