US predicts active 2011 hurricane season, may threaten Gulf refiners, petchems
The Atlantic basin is expected to see an above-normal hurricane season this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued on Thursday from the US National Weather Service, potentially threatening refining and petrochemical operations along the US Gulf coast and eastern seaboard.
That would continue a recent trend, in which two of the past three seasons have been above average. In 2008, Hurricane Gustav in Louisiana and Hurricane Ike in Texas significantly disrupted operations.
In 2010, overall storm activity was significantly higher than normal, but wind patterns steered most systems away from the US. Even so, several systems impacted refining, petrochemical and logistics operations in central and northern Mexico.
For the six-month 2011 season, which begins June 1, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting the following ranges:
· 12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
· 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)
· 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)
Each of these ranges has a 70% likelihood of occurring, and indicates that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
“The United States was fortunate last year. Winds steered most of the season’s tropical storms and all hurricanes away from our coastlines,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “However we can’t count on luck to get us through this season. We need to be prepared, especially with this above-normal outlook.”
Climate factors considered by forecasters for the outlook are:
· The continuing high activity era. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions conducive for development in sync, leading to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.
· Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic are up to two degrees Fahrenheit warmer-than-average.
· La Niña, which continues to weaken in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to dissipate later this month or in June, but its impacts such as reduced wind shear are expected to continue into the hurricane season.
“In addition to multiple climate factors, seasonal climate models also indicate an above-normal season is likely, and even suggest we could see activity comparable to some of the active seasons since 1995,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s climate prediction center.
NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook does not predict where and when any of these storms may hit. Landfall is dictated by weather patterns in place at the time the storm approaches, the NOAA noted.
To see the full NOAA report, click here.
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